Middle East conflict fears nearly double among UK holidaymakers — but cost remains the defining travel decision factor

Holiday Extras' Travel Disruption Tracker shows geopolitical anxiety is rising sharply — yet affordability still shapes whether Britons go away.

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New data has revealed ongoing conflict in the Middle East as the fastest growing issue leading holidaymakers to cancel or reconsider their travel plans for the year ahead.

The concerns were identified in Holiday Extras' Travel Disruption Tracker — a quarterly study that monitors issues consumers say impact their decisions on where to travel. Concerns around the situation in the Middle East have led to the sharpest year-on-year shift recorded by the study in the last 12 months.

In January 2025, a quarter (24%) of holidaymakers cited the Middle East and Ukraine conflicts as factors likely to lead them to change their travel plans. By the start of this year, that had risen to 33%. The latest analysis, completed on 10 March 2026, saw it rise to 47%, with the political climate in the United States seeing the second largest shift — up +22% from January 2025.

Travel Disruption Tracker data table showing top concerns among UK holidaymakers

Yet despite this surge in geopolitical concern, conflict still does not overtake affordability as the number one issue shaping travel decisions. The overall price of going on holiday — flights, accommodation and airport costs — remains the leading factor, with almost half (48%) citing it as one of the biggest influences on their travel choices.

The picture that emerges is not one of retreat, but recalibration. Holidaymakers remain determined to travel, but are weighing cost and uncertainty more carefully than ever.

A layered risk landscape

While no single factor dominates outright, the Travel Disruption Tracker shows that travellers are balancing financial pressure, geopolitical instability, and operational disruptions as part of the same decision-making process. The top concerns were:

Factor	Jan 2025	Jan 2026	Mar 2026	Change since Jan 2025
Rising price of holidays	—	50%	48%	—
Middle East / Ukraine conflicts	24%	33%	47%	+23%
Cost of living crisis	47%	48%	45%	-2%
Climate change events	50%	44%	42%	-8%
Strikes / industrial action	42%	39%	42%	+/- 0%
Trump administration	15%	33%	37%	+22%
Anti-tourism sentiment	32%	39%	36%	+4%
Unemployment / financial insecurity	25%	23%	26%	+1%

Seamus McCauley, Head of Public Affairs at Holiday Extras, said:

"In just a couple of weeks tensions in the Middle East have fast become one of the biggest concerns for holidaymakers planning their 2026 escapes, with many now reconsidering where to visit this year.

"While the conflict is a concern for many, affordability remains the biggest priority for holidaymakers — with the rising cost of holidays and the cost of living crisis sitting alongside the tensions as top considerations. As a result, we expect holidaymakers will head to places where they can get more for their money and experience warm weather in locations far from these tensions.

"Though as the tensions in the Middle East could cause the cost of going on holiday to rise, holidaymakers that plan ahead, book early, and are flexible will get the best value for money, and be able to rest assured that their holiday won't be affected."

Preparation over panic

Despite rising anxiety, the Tracker does not indicate widespread abandonment of travel plans. Instead, the data suggests consumers are seeking control — looking for ways to mitigate financial exposure and disruption risk before departure. For more information, travel recommendations and advice, visit the Holiday Extras guide.

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Notes to Editors

1. Method: Survey of 1,000 qualified UK holidaymakers conducted 10 March 2026. Respondents have taken or are planning a holiday involving travel outside the UK. Figures represent the percentage citing each factor as likely to cause them to change or cancel travel plans.