Flight Prices · 7 min read · Updated 2 September 2026

Why your flight could cost more, and what to do about it now

Airlines' fuel hedges have been tested for five months now, and the real results are in. Our interactive tracker shows how well protected each airline actually is, quarter by quarter, and what it means for when you should book.

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Most UK airlines locked in cheaper fuel prices in 2023 and 2024 through fuel hedging, and that protection has now been properly tested by six months of the Iran conflict and repeated flare-ups around the Strait of Hormuz, including fresh US strikes near Iranian oil infrastructure in the first days of September that pushed Brent crude back up towards $95 a barrel. The results are in from airlines' own results and trading updates published through early September 2026. easyJet's profit fell around 70% and Ryanair's fell 34% in the April-to-June quarter as unhedged fuel costs spiked, even though both airlines' hedging held and neither added a surcharge to existing bookings. Fares actually fell rather than rose, as airlines cut prices to support weaker demand. Looking ahead, the picture keeps shifting: IAG's newly published half-year results show British Airways is now much better protected into 2027 (55% hedged for Q1 2027, up from 39% previously disclosed) than earlier figures suggested, and Wizz Air's latest results show a similar upgrade for its 2027-28 exposure (39%, up from 17%), even as its near-term cover for winter 2026/27 eased slightly to 62%. Ryanair's hedge itself is unchanged, 80% through March 2027 at around $67 a barrel, but the airline has just cut its winter capacity and warned that summer 2027 fares could rise materially if oil stays high, since only 15% of its fuel is hedged for that period. easyJet sits in the middle, with cover stepping down from 79% in the current quarter to 62% for the first half of its next financial year; easyJet itself is separately subject to a pending £5.7bn takeover by Apollo Global Management, agreed in August and expected to complete by March 2027. The interactive tracker below uses these publicly disclosed figures to show exactly where your airline stands. Select your carrier and travel date to see how well protected that quarter is, and get a clear booking recommendation based on the data.

The airline fuel hedge tracker

Six months into the Iran conflict, we now have real evidence of how fuel hedging has performed, not just forecasts of how it might. Jet fuel prices have spiked repeatedly this year, and the volatility hasn't gone away: Brent crude swung from around $70 a barrel before the conflict to briefly above $140 in March, eased back to around $70 in early July as talks progressed, then climbed again through August. In the first days of September, fresh US strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz, following attacks on tankers in the strait, pushed Brent back up towards $95 a barrel. Jet fuel, which trades at a premium to crude, is reported by Ryanair as currently around $140 a barrel equivalent. The pattern so far has been repeated escalation and de-escalation rather than a one-way move, and further strikes could push prices in either direction again at any point.

Fuel hedging is the reason most airlines haven't passed that volatility straight through to fares. Most major UK carriers built up hedge books in 2023 and 2024, when fuel was cheaper, buying contracts months or years in advance to lock in a fixed price for future fuel. The picture now varies significantly by airline and by quarter, and in a couple of cases it has turned out quite differently from what early-2026 estimates suggested.

Select your airline and travel date below to see exactly where they stand.

The tool above uses publicly disclosed figures from airline investor reports. Select your carrier and travel date to see how much of their fuel for that quarter is pre-purchased at locked-in prices, and what that means for whether to book now or later.

Hedging coverage data is drawn from airline investor relations materials, results and trading updates published through 2 September 2026. Figures reflect management guidance at time of reporting and may be updated as airlines publish new disclosures. Always check current fare prices before making booking decisions.

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What is fuel hedging, and why does it matter right now?

Airlines are one of the world's most fuel-intensive businesses. Jet fuel typically accounts for 20 to 30% of an airline's total operating costs, which means that when oil prices spike, an unprotected airline faces a direct hit to its margins and passes that cost on through fares.

To protect against this, airlines buy fuel hedges: financial contracts that lock in a price for fuel they'll need in future months or years. If market prices rise above that locked-in rate, the airline is protected, since they've already bought their fuel cheaper. If prices fall below it, they've overpaid, but that's a risk they accept in exchange for stability.

Most major UK carriers built up strong hedge books in 2023 and 2024, when fuel was more affordable. That protection has genuinely shielded fares through 2025 and into 2026, but it hasn't been a complete shield. IAG, British Airways' parent, said in May that even with 70% of its fuel hedged, the severity of the price spikes meant its full-year fuel bill would still come in around €9 billion, up from an original forecast of €7.1 billion. Hedging reduces exposure, it doesn't eliminate it, and coverage drops off sharply for some airlines as you move into 2027, when fares are more likely to reflect today's market prices directly.

What each airline's position means for you

easyJet

easyJet's fiscal third-quarter (April to June) operating profit fell by more than two-thirds after the conflict added roughly £105 million to its fuel bill and demand softened. CEO Kenton Jarvis has said the airline continues to manage the impact of the conflict on both fuel prices and booking trends. Looking ahead, easyJet reported in its most recent trading update that it is 79% hedged at $786 per metric tonne going into its fiscal fourth quarter (July to September 2026), stepping down to 62% at $754 per metric tonne for the first half of its next financial year (October 2026 to March 2027). That's a more gradual decline than earlier in the year, though coverage for mid-to-late 2027 has not yet been freshly disclosed and remains our best estimate based on the airline's historical pattern. Separately, on 6 August 2026 easyJet's board agreed to a £5.7bn takeover by US private equity firm Apollo Global Management at 715p a share, after rival bidder Castlelake withdrew from the process. The deal is expected to complete by the end of March 2027, subject to a shareholder vote and regulatory clearance, and doesn't itself change easyJet's fuel hedging position or its passenger-facing fares.

Ryanair

Ryanair reported a 34% fall in first-quarter profit to €538 million as unhedged jet fuel prices more than doubled to above $150 a barrel, even though 80% of its fuel needs are hedged. The airline responded by cutting fares 6% to keep demand up rather than passing costs through. That 80% hedge, at around $67 a barrel, covers Ryanair right through to the end of March 2027, making it one of the best-protected airlines in Europe for that period. The picture changes sharply after that: Ryanair has so far only hedged 15% of its following financial year (April 2027 to March 2028), locked in opportunistically at around $85 a barrel during a dip in prices. Unless it adds materially more cover, summer and autumn 2027 is Ryanair's most exposed window in this entire tracker, not its best-protected one as earlier estimates suggested. On 2 September 2026, with jet fuel trading around $140 a barrel, Ryanair trimmed its FY2027 traffic target from 216 million to 214 million passengers, keeping winter capacity broadly flat to limit its exposure to unhedged fuel over the unprofitable winter schedule, a move it expects to cut winter losses by €70 to €100 million. The airline also warned that if high oil prices persist into summer 2027, short-haul fares across Europe could rise materially as some less well-hedged rivals struggle to keep flying.

British Airways (IAG)

IAG's half-year 2026 results, published 31 July, gave a fuller and more reassuring picture than the single figure disclosed in May. IAG is around 74% hedged for the current quarter (July to September 2026) and 65% for the final quarter of the year, then 55% for the first quarter of 2027, 48% for the second, 39% for the third and 31% for the fourth. That's a notably better position for early 2027 than the 39% figure previously disclosed for that single quarter suggested, though cover still tapers steadily through the year. IAG said hedging delivered €769 million of gains in the first half and that it expects to recover around 60% of its higher fuel costs through pricing and cost actions; it has paused new hedging contracts since the conflict began, betting that prices will pull back before it needs to lock in further cover, a bet that has only partly paid off so far.

Wizz Air

Wizz Air's Q1 FY2027 results, published 6 August, updated and superseded its earlier 29 May disclosure. It now has 82% of its fuel needs hedged for the current quarter (July to September 2026), easing to 62% for the second half of its financial year (October 2026 to March 2027), a touch lower than the 71% it had previously disclosed for that period. The more significant change is further out: cover for the first half of its following financial year (April to September 2027) now stands at 39%, more than double the 17% figure disclosed in May, a meaningful upgrade to what had looked like Wizz Air's most exposed window. Wizz Air said the estimated €50 million earnings hit from the conflict earlier in the year was largely absorbed by hedges already in place, even as it posted a €198.6 million loss for the quarter on higher fuel costs. Coverage beyond September 2027 has not yet been disclosed.

Jet2 and TUI Airways

Both carriers actively manage fuel risk, but neither publicly discloses specific hedging positions. We don't publish estimates for data we don't have. What we can say is that both have strong track records of operational stability and are unlikely to be unprotected, but we can't show you their specific numbers.

What the conflict means for your holiday budget

Oil prices, fuel surcharges, and the "book now vs wait" question, answered honestly for UK holidaymakers.

When should you book?

Fuel hedging is one input into airfare pricing, not the only one. Demand, competition and capacity all matter too, and interestingly, real-world fares have actually fallen this year despite higher fuel costs, as airlines competed for nervous travellers. But as a structural signal, something baked into an airline's cost base for a specific period, hedge coverage remains a genuinely useful indicator. An airline with 15% hedge coverage in a period is buying most of its fuel at whatever the market is doing that day, whichever direction that goes.

The practical rule of thumb that comes out of this data, updated for what's actually happened rather than what was forecast in the spring, and again for the fresh disclosures published since late July:

• Flying in 2026? Most carriers remain reasonably well covered, easyJet, Ryanair, Wizz Air and IAG are all above 60% through the rest of this year, and mostly above 70%. You have time to shop around, but there's no reason to hold off booking once you've found a fare you're happy with.
• Flying in the first quarter of 2027? The picture here has genuinely improved. British Airways is now 55% hedged, well up from the 39% previously disclosed, Ryanair is unchanged at around 80%, easyJet sits at 62%, and Wizz Air's cover for this window has eased slightly to 62%. None of the four is now badly exposed for this specific quarter.
• Flying from April 2027 onwards? This remains the highest-risk window, but it's less one-sided than it looked in July. Ryanair is still the most exposed (15% hedged for FY2028), while Wizz Air's cover for April to September 2027 has more than doubled to 39%, and British Airways' cover tapers gradually from 48% to 31% across the year. If you know your dates for this period, booking now locks in today's pricing regardless of what happens to fuel costs between now and then. An airline can't retrospectively raise a fare you've already paid.
• Watch Ryanair's winter capacity cuts. Ryanair has trimmed its FY2027 traffic target and warned that fares across Europe could rise materially next summer if oil stays high and weaker, less-hedged rivals struggle to keep flying. That's a reason to book early for summer 2027 dates once you've settled on them, rather than wait and hope for a discount.
• Consider locking in your ancillaries too. Parking, hotels and lounges at your airport are priced independently of fuel, and booking in advance almost always gets you a better rate than booking on the day. Compare deals at your airport now.

The complete guide to navigating travel during the Iran conflict

Everything UK travellers need to know in one place: your rights, your costs, your options, and the smartest alternative destinations.

Our recommendations

Six months in, the story keeps evolving. Airlines' hedge books have absorbed most of the shock so far, and fares for 2026 travel have actually fallen rather than risen. The freshest results, from IAG and Wizz Air in late July and early August, both point the same way: better cover into 2027 than was previously disclosed, easing some of the sharpest exposure this tracker flagged back in the spring. Ryanair remains the outlier, its hedge numbers unchanged but its own actions, cutting winter capacity and warning of materially higher summer 2027 fares, are now the clearest signal in the sector that the risk hasn't gone away, just moved. And with oil prices spiking again in early September after fresh strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, this remains a live situation rather than a settled one.

Use the tracker above to check your specific airline and travel window. And whatever you decide about flights, book your parking, hotel and lounge in advance, those prices move independently, and early booking almost always wins.

We'll update the hedge data in this tracker each quarter as airlines publish new investor guidance. Bookmark this page to stay current.