Flight Prices · 8 min read · Updated 23 October 2026

Why your flight could cost more, and what to do about it now

Airlines' fuel hedges have now been tested for almost eight months, and for most of them the protection runs out in spring. Our interactive tracker shows how well protected each airline actually is, quarter by quarter, and what it means for when you should book.

Short on time? Let us summarise this article for you.

Most UK airlines locked in cheaper fuel prices in 2023 and 2024 through fuel hedging, and that protection has now been tested by almost eight months of the Iran conflict. Brent crude hit about $113 a barrel on 22 October, a five-month high, after fresh attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz and on Saudi Arabia. Hedging held through the summer: easyJet's profit fell around 70% and Ryanair's fell 34% in the April-to-June quarter as unhedged fuel costs spiked, but neither added a surcharge to existing bookings, and fares fell for much of the year. That is now changing. Ryanair's CEO says European fares could rise 10% to 20% over the next twelve months, easyJet has cut up to 700,000 more winter seats, and airfares were among the upward pressures on UK inflation in September. The cliff edge is April 2027, when most hedges run out. Ryanair is 80% hedged to March 2027 at around $67 a barrel but only 15% for the following year at $85, with spot fuel around double that. British Airways is 55% hedged for the first quarter of 2027, tapering to 31% by the end of the year. Wizz Air is 39% hedged for April to September 2027, TUI Group is 39% hedged for summer 2027, and easyJet's last disclosed cover for April to September 2027 was 29%. Jet2 is about 93% hedged to March 2027 but has not disclosed its position beyond that. The interactive tracker below uses these publicly disclosed figures to show exactly where your airline stands. Select your carrier and travel date to see how well protected that quarter is, and get a clear booking recommendation based on the data.

The airline fuel hedge tracker

Almost eight months into the Iran conflict, we now have real evidence of how fuel hedging has performed, not just forecasts of how it might. Jet fuel prices have spiked repeatedly this year, and the volatility hasn't gone away: Brent crude swung from around $70 a barrel before the conflict to briefly above $140 in March, eased back to around $70 in early July as talks progressed, then climbed again through August and September, including a mid-September escalation around the Red Sea. In October it has pushed higher still, touching about $113 on 22 October, its highest since May, after Iran said ships had been hit or struck mines near the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continued, including a deadly strike on Riyadh's airport on 10 October. Iran says indirect talks with Washington are continuing through Pakistan and Qatar, though the US denies negotiating, and there is no deal. Jet fuel trades at a premium to crude: Ryanair says spot jet fuel is now around double the $85 a barrel it has locked in for next year. The pattern so far has been repeated escalation and de-escalation rather than a one-way move, and prices could still move in either direction from here.

Fuel hedging is the reason most airlines haven't passed that volatility straight through to fares. Most major UK carriers built up hedge books in 2023 and 2024, when fuel was cheaper, buying contracts months or years in advance to lock in a fixed price for future fuel. The picture now varies significantly by airline and by quarter, and in a couple of cases it has turned out quite differently from what early-2026 estimates suggested.

Select your airline and travel date below to see exactly where they stand.

The tool above uses publicly disclosed figures from airline investor reports. Select your carrier and travel date to see how much of their fuel for that quarter is pre-purchased at locked-in prices, and what that means for whether to book now or later.

Hedging coverage data is drawn from airline investor relations materials, results and trading updates published through 23 October 2026. Figures reflect management guidance at time of reporting and may be updated as airlines publish new disclosures. Always check current fare prices before making booking decisions.

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What is fuel hedging, and why does it matter right now?

Airlines are one of the world's most fuel-intensive businesses. Jet fuel typically accounts for 20 to 30% of an airline's total operating costs, which means that when oil prices spike, an unprotected airline faces a direct hit to its margins and passes that cost on through fares.

To protect against this, airlines buy fuel hedges: financial contracts that lock in a price for fuel they'll need in future months or years. If market prices rise above that locked-in rate, the airline is protected, since they've already bought their fuel cheaper. If prices fall below it, they've overpaid, but that's a risk they accept in exchange for stability.

Most major UK carriers built up strong hedge books in 2023 and 2024, when fuel was more affordable. That protection has genuinely shielded fares through 2025 and into 2026, but it hasn't been a complete shield. IAG, British Airways' parent, said in May that even with 70% of its fuel hedged, the severity of the price spikes meant its full-year fuel bill would still come in around €9 billion, up from an original forecast of €7.1 billion. Hedging reduces exposure, it doesn't eliminate it, and coverage drops off sharply for most airlines as you move into 2027, when fares are more likely to reflect today's market prices directly.

What each airline's position means for you

easyJet

easyJet's fiscal third-quarter (April to June) operating profit fell by more than two-thirds after the conflict added roughly £105 million to its fuel bill and demand softened. In its most recent trading update it was 79% hedged at $786 per metric tonne for its fiscal fourth quarter (July to September 2026), stepping down to 62% at $754 per metric tonne for the first half of its next financial year (October 2026 to March 2027). Its last disclosed figure for April to September 2027 was 29% at $745 per metric tonne, reported with its May half-year results, so it has probably added some cover since but hasn't said how much. In October, CEO Kenton Jarvis said easyJet is cutting up to 700,000 more winter seats to avoid using expensive fuel, on top of an earlier cut of a similar size, and that fares would rise if fuel becomes more expensive still. Separately, easyJet's board agreed a £5.7bn takeover by US private equity firm Apollo Global Management at 715p a share in August. The scheme document was published on 15 October, a shareholder vote is set for November, and completion is expected by the end of March 2027, subject to regulatory approval. The deal doesn't itself change easyJet's fuel hedging position or its passenger-facing fares.

Ryanair

Ryanair reported a 34% fall in first-quarter profit to €538 million as unhedged jet fuel prices more than doubled to above $150 a barrel, even though 80% of its fuel needs are hedged. The airline cut fares 6% to keep demand up rather than passing costs through. That 80% hedge, at around $67 a barrel, covers Ryanair right through to the end of March 2027, making it one of the best-protected airlines in Europe for that period. The picture changes sharply after that: Ryanair has hedged only 15% of its following financial year (April 2027 to March 2028), locked in opportunistically at around $85 a barrel during a dip in prices, and its CEO reconfirmed those figures on 20 October. Unless it adds materially more cover, summer and autumn 2027 is Ryanair's most exposed window in this tracker. In September it trimmed its FY2027 traffic target from 216 million to 214 million passengers, cutting weaker winter flights to limit its exposure to unhedged fuel, while still planning 2% to 3% more capacity next summer. Speaking in Brussels on 20 October, Michael O'Leary said spot fuel is around double the price Ryanair has locked in for next year, and that European fares could rise by 10%, 15% or even 20% over the next twelve months, in what he called the biggest annual rise in history, because most airlines have very little hedging from April 2027. Ryanair's half-year results are due in November and should show whether it has added cover.

British Airways (IAG)

IAG's half-year 2026 results, published 31 July, gave a fuller and more reassuring picture than the single figure disclosed in May. IAG is around 74% hedged for the current quarter (July to September 2026) and 65% for the final quarter of the year, then 55% for the first quarter of 2027, 48% for the second, 39% for the third and 31% for the fourth. That's a notably better position for early 2027 than the 39% figure previously disclosed for that single quarter suggested, though cover still tapers steadily through the year. IAG said hedging delivered €769 million of gains in the first half and that it expects to recover around 60% of its higher fuel costs through pricing and cost actions; it has paused new hedging contracts since the conflict began, betting that prices will pull back before it needs to lock in further cover, a bet that has only partly paid off so far. Its next results, due on 6 November, should show whether it has started hedging again.

Wizz Air

Wizz Air's Q1 FY2027 results, published 6 August, updated and superseded its earlier 29 May disclosure. It now has 82% of its fuel needs hedged for the current quarter (July to September 2026), easing to 62% for the second half of its financial year (October 2026 to March 2027), a touch lower than the 71% it had previously disclosed for that period. The more significant change is further out: cover for the first half of its following financial year (April to September 2027) now stands at 39%, more than double the 17% figure disclosed in May, a meaningful upgrade to what had looked like Wizz Air's most exposed window. Across the full twelve months to March 2028 it was 23% hedged, which implies very little cover for the winter that follows. Wizz Air said the estimated €50 million earnings hit from the conflict earlier in the year was largely absorbed by hedges already in place, even as it posted a €198.6 million loss for the quarter on higher fuel costs. Its half-year results are due on 12 November.

Jet2

Jet2 does give a headline figure in its trading updates. In early September it said about 93% of its fuel requirement for the full financial year (April 2026 to March 2027) was hedged at an average of $753 per metric tonne, up from 90% at $743 in July, with more than 90% of its currency exposure also covered. That is one of the strongest positions in this tracker, but it is a full-year figure rather than quarter by quarter, and Jet2 has not disclosed its cover beyond March 2027. Summer 2027 is therefore the open question for Jet2, as it is for everyone else. Jet2 has also promised not to add fuel surcharges to any booking, existing or future.

TUI

TUI Airways doesn't publish a hedge position of its own, but its parent, TUI Group, does. In its pre-close update on 22 September, TUI Group said that as of 14 September 98% of its jet fuel for summer 2026, 63% for winter 2026/27 and 39% for summer 2027 was hedged. That is a sharp drop for next summer, as it is for most of the sector, although TUI also hedges its currency exposure and has said it will not add fuel surcharges to booked holidays. The figures cover the whole group, so treat them as a guide to TUI Airways rather than an exact match.

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When should you book?

Fuel hedging is one input into airfare pricing, not the only one. Demand, competition and capacity all matter too. Fares did fall for much of this year despite higher fuel costs, as airlines competed for nervous travellers, but that is starting to turn: the ONS listed airfares among the upward pressures on UK inflation in September, which rose to 3.5%, and airline bosses are now openly warning of rises next year. As a structural signal, something baked into an airline's cost base for a specific period, hedge coverage remains a genuinely useful indicator. An airline with 15% hedge coverage in a period is buying most of its fuel at whatever the market is doing that day, whichever direction that goes.

The practical rule of thumb that comes out of this data, updated for what has actually happened since the spring and for the disclosures published through October:

• Flying in the rest of 2026? Most carriers remain reasonably well covered: Ryanair is about 80% hedged, British Airways 65%, easyJet, Wizz Air and TUI Group 62% to 63%, and Jet2 about 93% for its financial year. You have time to shop around, but there's no reason to hold off booking once you've found a fare you're happy with. Winter timetables are thinner as airlines cut seats, so popular dates can sell out.
• Flying in the first quarter of 2027? The picture here is better than the spring estimates suggested. Ryanair is still around 80%, easyJet and Wizz Air sit at 62%, TUI Group at 63%, British Airways at 55%, and Jet2 at about 93% on its full-year figure. None of them is badly exposed for this specific quarter.
• Flying from April 2027 onwards? This is the highest-risk window, and the one airline bosses are now warning about. Ryanair is only 15% hedged, easyJet's last disclosed cover for April to September 2027 was 29%, Wizz Air and TUI Group are both at 39%, and British Airways tapers from 48% to 31% across the year. Jet2 hasn't said. If you know your dates for this period, booking now locks in today's pricing regardless of what happens to fuel costs between now and then. An airline can't retrospectively raise a fare you've already paid.
• Watch the capacity cuts. Ryanair has trimmed its FY2027 traffic target and easyJet has cut up to 700,000 more winter seats, both to limit how much expensive fuel they burn. Fewer seats and higher costs are a reason to book early for summer 2027 dates once you've settled on them, rather than wait and hope for a discount.
• Booked a package? Know your rights. After you book, your operator can only raise the price for fuel, third-party taxes or exchange rates, and must give at least 20 days' notice. If the increase is more than 8% you can cancel for a full refund. Jet2, TUI and easyJet have all pledged not to add fuel surcharges to booked holidays. Our complete guide to travelling during the conflict has more.
• Consider locking in your ancillaries too. Parking, hotels and lounges at your airport are priced independently of fuel, and booking in advance almost always gets you a better rate than booking on the day. Compare deals at your airport now.

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Almost eight months in, the story keeps evolving, and the risk has moved from this winter to next summer. Airlines' hedge books have absorbed most of the shock so far, and fares for 2026 travel fell for much of the year. The picture for 2027 is different. Oil has climbed back to about $113 a barrel, Ryanair's CEO is warning of European fare rises of 10% to 20%, and airlines are cutting winter seats to limit their use of expensive fuel. The freshest disclosures, from IAG and Wizz Air in the summer and Jet2 and TUI in September, show better cover into early 2027 than earlier estimates suggested, but cover tapers sharply after March for almost everyone, and Ryanair remains the starkest example at just 15% hedged for the following year. With talks unresolved and attacks on shipping and Gulf airports continuing, this remains a live situation rather than a settled one.

Use the tracker above to check your specific airline and travel window. And whatever you decide about flights, book your parking, hotel and lounge in advance, those prices move independently, and early booking almost always wins.

We'll update the hedge data in this tracker each quarter as airlines publish new investor guidance, and again after IAG (6 November), Wizz Air (12 November) and Ryanair's half-year results in November. Bookmark this page to stay current.