Flight Prices · 7 min read · Updated 29 July 2026

Why your flight could cost more, and what to do about it now

Airlines' fuel hedges have been tested for five months now, and the real results are in. Our interactive tracker shows how well protected each airline actually is, quarter by quarter, and what it means for when you should book.

Short on time? Let us summarise this article for you.

Most UK airlines locked in cheaper fuel prices in 2023 and 2024 through fuel hedging, and that protection has now been properly tested by five months of the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz disruption. The results are in from airlines' own results and trading updates published through late July 2026. easyJet's profit fell around 70% and Ryanair's fell 34% in the April-to-June quarter as unhedged fuel costs spiked, even though both airlines' hedging held and neither added a surcharge to existing bookings. Fares actually fell rather than rose, as airlines cut prices to support weaker demand. Looking ahead, the picture has shifted from earlier estimates: Wizz Air's official disclosures show it is now strongly hedged through March 2027 (71 to 84%), better than earlier feared, while Ryanair's very strong cover through March 2027 (80% at around $67 a barrel) drops sharply to just 15% for its 2028 financial year from April 2027, its most exposed window in this tracker. easyJet sits in the middle, with cover stepping down from 79% this quarter to 62% for the first half of its next financial year. The interactive tracker below uses these publicly disclosed figures to show exactly where your airline stands. Select your carrier and travel date to see how well protected that quarter is, and get a clear booking recommendation based on the data.

The airline fuel hedge tracker

Five months into the Iran conflict, we now have real evidence of how fuel hedging has performed, not just forecasts of how it might. Jet fuel prices spiked sharply at points this year, easing back somewhat in recent days as tensions cooled slightly, but remaining well above pre-conflict levels. Brent crude has swung from around $70 a barrel before the conflict to briefly above $140 in March, and most recently down to around $88 as of this week, though renewed strikes could push it back up again at any point.

Fuel hedging is the reason most airlines haven't passed that volatility straight through to fares. Most major UK carriers built up hedge books in 2023 and 2024, when fuel was cheaper, buying contracts months or years in advance to lock in a fixed price for future fuel. The picture now varies significantly by airline and by quarter, and in a couple of cases it has turned out quite differently from what early-2026 estimates suggested.

Select your airline and travel date below to see exactly where they stand.

The tool above uses publicly disclosed figures from airline investor reports. Select your carrier and travel date to see how much of their fuel for that quarter is pre-purchased at locked-in prices, and what that means for whether to book now or later.

Hedging coverage data is drawn from airline investor relations materials, results and trading updates published through 29 July 2026. Figures reflect management guidance at time of reporting and may be updated as airlines publish new disclosures. Always check current fare prices before making booking decisions.

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What is fuel hedging, and why does it matter right now?

Airlines are one of the world's most fuel-intensive businesses. Jet fuel typically accounts for 20 to 30% of an airline's total operating costs, which means that when oil prices spike, an unprotected airline faces a direct hit to its margins and passes that cost on through fares.

To protect against this, airlines buy fuel hedges: financial contracts that lock in a price for fuel they'll need in future months or years. If market prices rise above that locked-in rate, the airline is protected, since they've already bought their fuel cheaper. If prices fall below it, they've overpaid, but that's a risk they accept in exchange for stability.

Most major UK carriers built up strong hedge books in 2023 and 2024, when fuel was more affordable. That protection has genuinely shielded fares through 2025 and into 2026, but it hasn't been a complete shield. IAG, British Airways' parent, said in May that even with 70% of its fuel hedged, the severity of the price spikes meant its full-year fuel bill would still come in around €9 billion, up from an original forecast of €7.1 billion. Hedging reduces exposure, it doesn't eliminate it, and coverage drops off sharply for some airlines as you move into 2027, when fares are more likely to reflect today's market prices directly.

What each airline's position means for you

easyJet

easyJet's fiscal third-quarter (April to June) operating profit fell by more than two-thirds after the conflict added roughly £105 million to its fuel bill and demand softened. CEO Kenton Jarvis has said the airline continues to manage the impact of the conflict on both fuel prices and booking trends. Looking ahead, easyJet reported in its most recent trading update that it is 79% hedged at $786 per metric tonne going into its fiscal fourth quarter (July to September 2026), stepping down to 62% at $754 per metric tonne for the first half of its next financial year (October 2026 to March 2027). That's a more gradual decline than earlier in the year, though coverage for mid-to-late 2027 has not yet been freshly disclosed and remains our best estimate based on the airline's historical pattern.

Ryanair

Ryanair reported a 34% fall in first-quarter profit to €538 million as unhedged jet fuel prices more than doubled to above $150 a barrel, even though 80% of its fuel needs are hedged. The airline responded by cutting fares 6% to keep demand up rather than passing costs through. That 80% hedge, at around $67 a barrel, covers Ryanair right through to the end of March 2027, making it one of the best-protected airlines in Europe for that period. The picture changes sharply after that: Ryanair has so far only hedged 15% of its following financial year (April 2027 to March 2028), locked in opportunistically at around $85 a barrel during a dip in prices. Unless it adds materially more cover, summer and autumn 2027 is Ryanair's most exposed window in this entire tracker, not its best-protected one as earlier estimates suggested.

British Airways (IAG)

IAG told investors in May it had 70% of its fuel needs hedged for the remainder of 2026, and separately confirmed 39% coverage for the first quarter of 2027. That gives British Airways more gradual, but still real, exposure than some budget carriers as 2027 progresses. IAG has paused new hedging contracts since the conflict began, betting that prices will pull back before it needs to lock in further cover, a bet that has only partly paid off so far.

Wizz Air

Wizz Air's position looks considerably stronger than earlier in the year suggested. Its most recent official disclosure shows 84% of its fuel needs for the first half of its next financial year (April to September 2026) hedged at around $826 per metric tonne, and 71% for the second half (October 2026 to March 2027) at around $819 per metric tonne. Wizz Air said the estimated €50 million earnings hit from the conflict earlier in the year was largely absorbed by hedges already in place. Its exposure only opens up meaningfully from April 2027, where coverage for its following financial year currently stands at just 17%, similar to Ryanair's exposure over the same period.

Jet2 and TUI Airways

Both carriers actively manage fuel risk, but neither publicly discloses specific hedging positions. We don't publish estimates for data we don't have. What we can say is that both have strong track records of operational stability and are unlikely to be unprotected, but we can't show you their specific numbers.

What the conflict means for your holiday budget

Oil prices, fuel surcharges, and the "book now vs wait" question, answered honestly for UK holidaymakers.

When should you book?

Fuel hedging is one input into airfare pricing, not the only one. Demand, competition and capacity all matter too, and interestingly, real-world fares have actually fallen this year despite higher fuel costs, as airlines competed for nervous travellers. But as a structural signal, something baked into an airline's cost base for a specific period, hedge coverage remains a genuinely useful indicator. An airline with 15 to 17% hedge coverage in a period is buying most of its fuel at whatever the market is doing that day, whichever direction that goes.

The practical rule of thumb that comes out of this data, updated for what's actually happened rather than what was forecast in the spring:

• Flying in 2026? Most carriers remain reasonably well covered, easyJet, Ryanair and Wizz Air are all above 70% through the rest of this year. You have time to shop around, but there's no reason to hold off booking once you've found a fare you're happy with.
• Flying in the first quarter of 2027? This is a better picture than earlier estimates suggested for Wizz Air (71% hedged) and unchanged for Ryanair (still around 80%). easyJet sits in the middle at 62%. British Airways is the most exposed of the four at 39%.
• Flying from April 2027 onwards? This is now the highest-risk window across the board, and the airlines most exposed have changed: Ryanair (15%) and Wizz Air (17%) currently have the least cover for this period, a reversal of the position earlier in the year when Wizz Air looked most exposed and Ryanair looked well protected throughout 2027. If you know your dates for this period, booking now locks in today's pricing regardless of what happens to fuel costs between now and then. An airline can't retrospectively raise a fare you've already paid.
• Consider locking in your ancillaries too. Parking, hotels and lounges at your airport are priced independently of fuel, and booking in advance almost always gets you a better rate than booking on the day. Compare deals at your airport now.

The complete guide to navigating travel during the Iran conflict

Everything UK travellers need to know in one place: your rights, your costs, your options, and the smartest alternative destinations.

The bottom line

Five months in, the story isn't quite the one anyone expected back in March. Airlines' hedge books have absorbed most of the shock so far, and fares for 2026 travel have actually fallen rather than risen. But the protection for 2027 has reshuffled: Ryanair and Wizz Air, which looked like opposite ends of the spectrum earlier in the year, are now both facing their thinnest cover from April 2027 onwards, while Wizz Air's near-term position turned out stronger than feared.

Use the tracker above to check your specific airline and travel window. And whatever you decide about flights, book your parking, hotel and lounge in advance, those prices move independently, and early booking almost always wins.

We'll update the hedge data in this tracker each quarter as airlines publish new investor guidance. Bookmark this page to stay current.