Travel News · 8 min read · 28 May 2026

EES queues will cost the EU £1.9bn this summer

Our survey of UK holidaymakers finds 1 in 5 likely to change destination because of EES border queues, and 1 in 30 already has. More and more airlines, airports, prime ministers and mayors across Europe are demanding the system be fixed. We have modelled the money at stake.

Short on time? Let us summarise this article for you.

A Holiday Extras survey of UK holidaymakers in May 2026 found that 3.3% have already changed their holiday plans because of EES border queues, and 17.8% say they are likely to. Applying a conservative 20% conversion rate to the "likely" group and using ONS travel data as a baseline, we model the Schengen zone at risk of losing around £1.9 billion in UK tourist revenue this summer alone. Spain faces the largest absolute loss because it hosts the most British visitors. Greece, which proactively suspended EES for UK nationals in April, is the main beneficiary. Turkey and North Africa are picking up bookings too. Meanwhile, the list of European figures demanding the system be suspended, relaxed or scrapped for the summer has grown from one Croatian mayor in April to include three airlines, three major aviation bodies, the Prime Minister of Portugal, the Mayor of Lisbon, and tourism authorities across the Algarve, the Canary Islands and the Balearics.

What our survey found

In May 2026, Holiday Extras surveyed UK holidaymakers about the impact of EES border queues on their travel intentions. The results were striking.

The 3.3% who have already changed plans represents confirmed, real behaviour change. The 17.8% who say they are likely to change is a stated-intent figure, which typically overstates actual behaviour. Applying a conservative 20% conversion rate to the "likely" group — gives a combined picture of roughly 6.5 million UK trips in 2026 potentially redirected away from their original Schengen destinations. The economic model below shows what that means in pounds, and what it will cost the European tourist economies enforcing the EES checks on every visitor.

The economic model: what this costs Europe

Based on ONS Travel Trends 2024 — 94.6 million UK trips abroad, projected to around 96 million for 2026, with an average spend of £831 per trip — and at 20% conversion on the "likely to change" group, the central estimate is a Schengen loss of around £1.9 billion in UK tourist revenue this summer. Spain takes the largest absolute hit simply because it hosts so many more British visitors than anywhere else. Greece, which proactively suspended EES for UK nationals in April, stands to gain roughly £230 million. Turkey; North Africa; the non-EU Adriatic coast countries such as Albania and Montenegro; and Ireland and Cyprus, both within the EU but outside Schengen so insulated from the EES chaos, pick up the remainder.

The model below is fully interactive. The 3.3% and 17.8% survey figures are set as defaults but all inputs can be adjusted. At 10% conversion the Schengen loss falls to around £1 billion; at 40% it rises to approximately £3.7 billion.

What the booking data already shows

The survey data aligns closely with what booking platforms and trade bodies are already reporting. Greece suspended EES biometric checks for UK nationals in April, and the market response has been immediate and measurable.

• Greece's Tourism Ministry confirmed a 2.8% uplift in UK bookings for June following the exemption announcement.
• Advantage Travel Partnership reported Greece's share of British holiday bookings rising from 7.7% to 9.8% in the fortnight after the announcement — almost two percentage points in two weeks.
• Spain, the Canary Islands and the Balearics showed a simultaneous softening over the same period, described by Advantage as "a gradual decline in share." The Majorca Daily Bulletin reported this week that Spain demand is "soft" relative to Greece.
• Turkey recorded a 3.4% increase in UK arrivals in Q1 2026, with travel agents attributing part of the recovery to the EES-free arrival experience.
• easyJet reported a 21% rise in flights to Tunisia, Morocco and Turkey compared with the previous year, with North Africa picking up particularly strongly from UK airports.

Julia Lo Bue-Said, chief executive of Advantage Travel Partnership, said: "This shift suggests that travellers are actively factoring border friction into their decision-making, opting for destinations where the arrival experience is smoother and more predictable."

Countries already acting: Belgium, Spain, Italy, France

Greece made a political announcement. Four other major European countries have since moved to suspend or limit EES biometric checks — they are just doing it more quietly, using EU-permitted flexibility rules as legal cover rather than issuing press releases.

The full list of calls for suspension

The chorus demanding action has grown from one Croatian mayor in late April to a list that now includes heads of government, cabinet ministers, mayors, airline CEOs and the bodies representing Europe's entire aviation industry.