The shape of UK travel is changing — fast

The story of UK outbound travel in 2026 is not simply one of post-pandemic recovery. It is a story of structural change: fewer people flying rarely, more people flying frequently, higher spend per trip, and a shift in how travellers get to the airport. This report draws on ONS International Passenger Survey data to trace those changes and project where the market is heading.

Pre-pandemic, the UK outbound travel market was dominated by infrequent travellers — the majority of flights were taken by people making one to four overseas trips a year. That world is receding. By 2026, for the first time, the majority of UK overseas flights are projected to be taken by people who fly five or more times a year. This is a seismic shift in who the travelling public actually is.

At the same time, total flight volumes are set to exceed pre-pandemic highs by a meaningful margin — projected to reach 89.4 million flights in 2026, versus 79.5 million in 2019. The market is growing, but growth is being driven disproportionately by a smaller, higher-frequency segment of travellers. Understanding this cohort — and how their needs differ from the once-a-year holidaymaker — is the central challenge for anyone operating in the UK travel market.

Data sources and approach

This report is based primarily on Holiday Extras proprietary consumer research into airport transport and spend behaviour, combined with published volume data from the ONS International Passenger Survey. The structural market shifts identified here are grounded in Holiday Extras' direct research with UK travellers.

Total UK overseas travel has surpassed pre-pandemic highs

UK outbound travel has not merely recovered from the pandemic — it has exceeded its previous peak. Total overseas visits in 2025 have already surpassed the 2019 record, and the trajectory points firmly upward into 2026.

Total overseas visits by UK residents stood at 93.1 million in 2019 — the pre-pandemic high. By 2025, that figure had reached an estimated 96.6 million, surpassing the previous record. By 2026, visits are projected to reach 101.6 million — a 9.2% increase on the 2019 peak. The pandemic dip to 23.8 million in 2020 and 19.1 million in 2021 now looks like a temporary interruption to a long-term growth trend.

Total overseas flights are similarly on an upward trajectory. The 2026 projection of 89.4 million represents a 12.4% increase over the 2019 figure of 79.5 million — meaning the UK will have materially more flights than before the pandemic, not just the same number. Demand for air travel among UK residents is structurally higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Frequent flyers now dominate the market — a structural shift

The most significant change in UK outbound travel is not in total volumes, but in who is flying. People taking five or more overseas trips a year have grown from a small minority to the majority of all flights. This is a structural, not cyclical, change.

In 2022, travellers taking 5 or more overseas trips per year accounted for just 21% of all UK overseas flights. By 2024 that had risen to 43%. The 2025 estimate puts it at 50% — parity with infrequent travellers — and the 2026 projection has frequent flyers accounting for 53% of all flights. The majority of UK air travel is now taken by people who fly at least five times a year.

Conversely, the 1–4 trips/year cohort — which historically made up the majority of UK flights — has seen its share fall from 79% in 2022 to a projected 47% in 2026. In absolute terms, this cohort's total trips have also declined, from 55.7 million in 2022 to a projected 48.3 million in 2026. The infrequent traveller is not disappearing, but they are no longer the dominant force in the market.

Once-a-year flyers are disappearing while the 5–10 cohort surges

Behind the headline shift from infrequent to frequent travellers lies a more detailed story. The single-trip cohort is in sharp absolute decline, while the 5–10 trips/year group has nearly doubled in size, becoming the largest individual cohort in the market.

The once-a-year flyer — taking exactly one overseas trip per year — was the largest single cohort in 2022 at 15.2 million trips. By 2024 that had fallen to 9.1 million, and the 2026 projection stands at just 6.4 million — a 58% fall over four years. No other cohort has declined so sharply in absolute terms. This is the fastest-shrinking segment in UK outbound travel.

At the other end of the spectrum, the 5–10 trips/year cohort has grown from 15.2 million in 2022 to a projected 28.3 million in 2026 — an 86% increase. This makes it the single largest cohort by volume in 2026, accounting for 28% of all overseas flights. The 11–20 trips/year cohort has also grown dramatically: recorded at zero in 2022, it stands at an estimated 17.5 million by 2026 (17% of all flights). This likely reflects a combination of genuine growth and a reclassification in the data between 2022 and 2023, and should be interpreted with some caution.

*The zero values for 11–20 and 20+ cohorts in 2022 likely reflect a data or classification change between survey years rather than the genuine absence of these travellers. The rapid apparent emergence of these cohorts from 2023 onwards warrants analytical caution, though the directional trend of growth in high-frequency travel is consistent with other indicators.

Spend per trip is rising — £1k–£2.5k becomes the new modal bracket

As the profile of the UK traveller shifts toward higher-frequency, more experienced travellers, spend per person per trip is rising. By 2026, the most common spend bracket has shifted upward for the first time.

In 2022, the modal spend per person per overseas trip was £500–£1,000, followed by £200–£500. These brackets reflected a market still dominated by cost-conscious, infrequent holidaymakers. By 2026, for the first time, the most commonly reported expected spend per person per trip is £1,000–£2,500 — with £500–£1,000 in second place. This upward shift in the spend distribution reflects both inflation and the changing composition of who is travelling: more frequent flyers tend to travel for a wider range of purposes, including business and higher-end leisure, and are less price-sensitive on trip costs.

The shift toward higher spend per trip has significant implications for travel ancillaries. Travellers spending over £1,000 per person per trip are materially more likely to invest in premium airport services — lounges, pre-booked parking, travel insurance — as these represent a smaller share of total trip cost. The £1k–£2.5k traveller is a different commercial proposition from the £200–£500 holidaymaker who was the core customer a few years ago.

Taxis are winning the airport transfer battle as parking and drop-offs decline

How travellers get to the airport is shifting. Parking is losing share, drop-offs by friends and family are falling as airport charges rise, and taxis are the clear beneficiary.

Airport parking remains the most common way for UK travellers to reach their departure airport, and its headline share shift — from 37% to 32% — tells only part of the story. The overall figure masks a significant structural change within the parking market itself: the proliferation of customer review platforms has made it increasingly difficult for low-quality and rogue parking operators to survive. Sites that relied on information asymmetry — taking bookings, pocketing fees and providing little in return — are being steadily driven out of a market where poor service is now immediately and publicly visible. What is left is a consolidated base of established, reputable providers. The parking market is smaller in overall share terms, but materially better quality. It fell from 2023 to 2024, then recovered slightly in 2025 — consistent with a shakeout followed by stabilisation around reliable operators.

Being dropped off by friends or family has also declined — from 23% to 20% — a trend likely accelerated by the introduction and increase of airport drop-off charges at major UK airports, which have made the 'free' lift to the airport substantially less free.

The clear beneficiary of both trends is the taxi (including ride-hailing services such as Uber). Taxi use for airport travel has risen from 21% to 26% — an increase of five percentage points. For frequent flyers in particular, the convenience and predictability of a taxi or ride-hail is increasingly preferred over the logistical complexity of parking or the social cost of asking for a lift.

What the shift means for the UK travel market

The data points to a fundamental reorientation of UK outbound travel. The industry built around the annual family holiday is giving way to one shaped by the needs and preferences of a smaller, more frequent, higher-spending travelling class.

About Holiday Extras

Holiday Extras is the UK's leading provider of airport travel services, including airport parking, hotels, lounges and transfers. Each year, millions of UK travellers use Holiday Extras to make the journey to and from the airport easier.

This research report was commissioned to better understand the structural shifts taking place in UK outbound travel, and to provide authoritative analysis of how the market is changing for travellers, airlines and airport service providers alike.

The flight and visit volume data in this report is sourced from the ONS International Passenger Survey. Holiday Extras consumer research on spend and airport transport was conducted in January 2026.

For press enquiries, please contact [email protected]

Research note

ONS International Passenger Survey data and Holiday Extras Jan26 surveys are used throughout. Estimates and projections for 2025 and 2026 are based on trend extrapolation from ONS datasets and Holiday Extras analysis.

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